Entering into this comparison between Brian Kelly's first two years and Charlie Weis' last two years, Irish Sports News was not attempting to support either coach. Furthermore, ISN did not intend this to be an indictment of Brian Kelly's future as the head football of the Fighting Irish. Simply, ISN wanted to undertake a statistical view of teams with comparable talent under two seperte head coaches. ISN reviewed Win/Loss records, Points Per Game, Yards, Turnovers and Recruiting. To reiterate, we did not draw a conclusion until after we reviewed these factors.
Win/Loss Records
Wins and Losses are ultimately how a head coach is judged in college football. In the 2008 and 2009, Charlie Weis was a pedestrian 13-12. Brian Kelly has earned a better but still mediocre 16-10 record. The winning percentage of Weis during this period is .520. Kelly's percentage is .615. Overall, Kelly's has performed better with comparable talent to Weis' teams. However, this does not tell the entire story of the difference between these two coaches.
Kelly has won games against better teams than Weis. Charlie Weis' best win in 2008 was a win against 8-5 and unranked Navy team. Weis followed up this victory the next year with another spectacular best win against an 8-5 and unranked Boston College squad. On the other hand, Kelly's wins were against a Utah unit that went 10-3 and was ranked #23 in the final Coaches' poll and a Michigan State team that is currently ranked #13.
Both Weis and Kelly have one bowl win during this period. Weis defeated Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl in the 2008 season. Last year, Notre Dame beat Miami in the Sun Bowl. Subjectively, one could detbate which win is more impressive. However, objectively, Weis and Kelly are equal in this category.
Taking all the statistics and information together, Brian Kelly clearly has been more of a winner both in volume and quality. Not only has Kelly won more games; he has also defeated the quality opponents that Weis failed to beat.
Points Per Game
Another way to view Notre Dame's output on the field is the points per game and points allowed numbers as well as the difference between two.
Charlie Weis' teams had a positive scoring margin with 3.35 points per game. The offensive under Weis' control averaged 27.4 points per game during this two-year period. The defense allowed an average of 24.05 points per game. Neither of these numbers stack up to Kelly's numbers.
The offensive under Kelly and his staff averaged 27.75 or 0.35 points more than Weis' teams. The defense under Kelly allowed 3.60 points less per game than Weis' teams at 20.45 points per game.
Kelly ultimately is better on offensive and defensive than Weis. This has most likely lead to winning more games under Weis.
Total Yards
Occasionally wins and losses do not always demonstrate the entire picture. To evaluate the team's performance, factors such as yards per game, yards per game allowed and the differential between the two should be reviewed.
Charlie Weis' team averaged 403.45 yards per game while allowing 363.8 yards per game. This totaled a differential of 39.65. Kelly's teams averaged 396.35 yards per game while allowing 351.35 yards per game. The differential between the two gives an idea of how well the team is performing on the field. Weis' teams had a yardage differntial of 39.65. Kelly has similar number of 45.00. 6 yards over the course of a football game is not exactly a significant amout.
The difference between Kelly and Weis is not significant in this category. Weis has better offenses overall while Kelly had better defenses. Both teams, however, were very similar when comparing the differential between the two teams.
Turnovers
Turnovers have killed Notre Dame's 2011 campaign. Arguably, the Irish could have been at least 10-2 this year if it were not for tunrovers. This is a major difference between Kelly and Weis. Weis' teams had a 0.19 turnover margin. Teams under Kelly had a -1.07 turnover margin. The difference between two margins is 1.266 turnovers per game. This is a significant difference. Weis' teams appear to have taken care of the ball and forces more turnovers than Kelly's teams.
Recruiting, in 2008 & 2009 vs. 2010 & 2011
At this point, Brian Kelly and his staff have out-recruited Charlie Weis. According to Rivals.com, Kelly's first two clases were ranked an average of 12.5. Charlie Weis was ranked an average 17.5.Kelly has brought in elite defensive talent that has not been at Notre Dame in some time. This includes defensive prospects Aaron Lynch, Stephon Tuitt, Ishaq Williams, Sheldon Day, Jarron Jones, Ronald Darby and Tee Shepard. Between 2008 and 2009, Weis brought in Manti Te'o, an elite linebacker prospect and an equally as good player in college. However, the 2008 class (entering in 2009) failed because of transfers and players just not panning out. Brian Kelly mainly recruited the 2009 class (entering 2010) that is attributed to Weis in this study.
Conclusion
Many of these statistics verify that Weis is not as good of a coach than Kelly. However, it ultimately does not mean that Kelly is the answer at Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have definitely improved under Kelly more than Weis. It seems that with improved coaching and recruiting may point to Notre Dame returning to national prominence in the near future. Kelly's recruitng class and third year will probably tell fans everything they need to know. If Kelly wins 8 or more games next year and brings in top 15 recruiting class in February, then Kelly will give Notre Dame a chance to win BCS games and compete for the National Title.
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